Brief Battle is free during the pilot: verified brokers who cover Al Aryam send their best units for 72 hours and we rank them against registered deals. Few brokers have joined so far, so offers may be few. Brokers never see your contact details unless you choose an offer.
Last 12 months. Typical = the middle half of registered deals. Outlook and comparables are under each home type.
By home type
3BR villa or townhouse · BUA ≈2,380 sqft
Typical price
AED 2.95M – 3.5M
Median
AED 3.2M
Ready sales, 12 months
129
Plot (median)
2,616 sq ft
Built-up (median)
2,384 sq ft
AED 2.95Mmedian AED 3.2MAED 3.5M
Why this range: the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of 129 registered ready sales in the last 12 months.
Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot.
Rent: AED 150k – 170k a year, median AED 160k (392 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
12-month outlook
p10 AED 2.46Mp50 AED 3.06Mp90 AED 4M
Central case -4.2% on today's median.
Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band. Method: trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.
Recent registered sales (8)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
13 Oct 2026 Ready
2,170
2,156
3,000,000
12 Oct 2026 Ready
2,867
2,507
3,275,000
9 Oct 2026 Ready
2,958
2,277
2,600,000
8 Oct 2026 Ready
3,328
2,552
3,775,000
6 Oct 2026 Ready
2,499
2,480
2,500,000
23 Sep 2026 Ready
2,896
2,305
3,050,000
17 Sep 2026 Ready
3,856
2,553
3,400,000
15 Sep 2026 Ready
2,412
2,507
2,000,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
4BR villa or townhouse · BUA ≈2,560 sqft
Typical price
AED 3.75M – 4.35M
Median
AED 4.1M
Ready sales, 12 months
66
Plot (median)
3,270 sq ft
Built-up (median)
2,559 sq ft
AED 3.75Mmedian AED 4.1MAED 4.35M
Why this range: the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of 66 registered ready sales in the last 12 months.
Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot.
Rent: AED 180k – 208k a year, median AED 191k (137 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
12-month outlook
p10 AED 3.12Mp50 AED 3.88Mp90 AED 5.08M
Central case -5.2% on today's median.
Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band. Method: trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.
Recent registered sales (8)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
12 Oct 2026 Ready
3,099
2,559
4,065,000
12 Oct 2026 Ready
2,948
2,559
3,700,000
7 Oct 2026 Ready
2,377
2,554
2,640,000
1 Oct 2026 Ready
2,317
2,587
3,300,000
30 Sep 2026 Ready
4,312
2,951
4,500,000
24 Sep 2026 Ready
3,350
2,550
4,350,000
14 Sep 2026 Ready
2,809
—
3,800,000
10 Sep 2026 Ready
3,550
2,818
4,200,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
No registered sales or enough new rents in 12 months for: 2BR villa or townhouse, 5BR villa or townhouse.
Market trend
Quarterly index of ready-sale prices and new rents, adjusted for the mix of home types and sizes sold each quarter (2025Q1 = 100).
Ready-sale prices: 111.7 in 2026Q3New rents (Ejari): 97.2 in 2026Q3Index figures
Quarter
Sale index
Rent index
2026Q3
111.7(n 51)
97.2(n 186)
2026Q2
113.9(n 37)
99.4(n 113)
2026Q1
117(n 47)
98.8(n 126)
2025Q4
114.1(n 57)
100.5(n 105)
2025Q3
111.8(n 49)
101.8(n 155)
2025Q2
106.3(n 74)
100.3(n 149)
2025Q1
100(n 131)
100(n 142)
2024Q4
100.6(n 89)
100.5(n 128)
2024Q3
96.9(n 83)
99.1(n 214)
2024Q2
93.7(n 62)
96.1(n 142)
2024Q1
87.3(n 51)
93.1(n 129)
2023Q4
86.1(n 88)
92.5(n 166)
2023Q3
80.2(n 90)
90.1(n 224)
2023Q2
75.2(n 82)
89.4(n 152)
2023Q1
70.6(n 66)
86.2(n 135)
2022Q4
70.7(n 56)
83.4(n 141)
2022Q3
70.2(n 62)
73.3(n 261)
2022Q2
69.5(n 61)
66.9(n 184)
2022Q1
67.5(n 49)
67.2(n 136)
2021Q4
66.1(n 37)
65(n 161)
Mix-adjusted price change: -4.3% a year over the last 12 months, +8.9% a year over 24 months. Ready sales in the last 6 months: 91, against 104 in the 6 months before.
Track record
Track record
How well have our forecasts done?
Our model, average error
13.9%
Simple median, average error
23.5%
Past predictions checked
44
Outcomes inside the 80% band
84%
On 44 past 12-month predictions, made only with data available at the time, our model's average error was 41% lower than simply carrying forward the median price.
An honest 80% band should contain about 80% of outcomes; ours contained 84%.
No broker guides for Al Aryam yet. Guides are written with registered brokers, signed with their BRN, and published only after they approve the final text.
Coverage: segments with a price range cover ≥ 80% of the area's ready sales in 12 months, with rent, at least one forecast, and off-plan at most 50% of sales (off-plan is not priced).