The Meadows: prices, rents and 12-month outlook

Data as of 13 Oct 2026. Sources: DLD — Real Estate Transactions (data.dubai open data) (retrieved 15 Oct 2026); DLD — Rent Contracts / Ejari (data.dubai open data) (retrieved 15 Oct 2026); DLD — Building and Property Project Records (data.dubai open data) (retrieved 15 Oct 2026). This is not a formal valuation. How we calculate.

At a glance

Home type	Sales (12m)	Median	Outlook
3BR villa · BUA ≈3,410 sqft	7	AED 10.15M	See range
4BR villa · BUA ≈4,000 sqft	20	AED 11.6M	See range
5BR villa · BUA ≈3,940 sqft	21	AED 13.1M	See range
6BR villa · BUA ≈4,920 sqft	3	—	Abstain

By home type

Segment

3BR villa · BUA ≈3,410 sqft

Typical price

AED 9.88M – 10.5M

Median

AED 10.15M

Sales, last 12 months

Plot (median)

5,932 sq ft

Built-up (median)

3,415 sq ft

Why this range: 7 recorded sales in this segment in the last 12 months, listed under Comparables. Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot. Ready and off-plan deals are kept apart.

Rent: AED 311k – 526k a year (46 registered leases, last 12 months)

12-month outlook

Central case -3.6% on today's median. Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band; one time in ten it will land above, one in ten below. Method — trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.

Comparables (8)

Date	Type	Plot	Built-up	Price
4 Aug 2026	Ready	6,017 sq ft	3,415 sq ft	AED 10,500,000
12 Jun 2026	Ready	6,125 sq ft	3,415 sq ft	AED 10,150,000
4 Jun 2026	Ready	10,967 sq ft	3,069 sq ft	AED 10,500,000
6 Mar 2026	Ready	6,497 sq ft	3,069 sq ft	AED 10,000,000
22 Jan 2026	Ready	5,681 sq ft	3,242 sq ft	AED 9,750,000
4 Dec 2025	Ready	5,709 sq ft	3,069 sq ft	AED 8,200,000
22 Oct 2025	Ready	5,673 sq ft	3,415 sq ft	AED 12,000,000
8 Oct 2025	Ready	6,676 sq ft	3,069 sq ft	AED 13,250,000

Segment

4BR villa · BUA ≈4,000 sqft

Typical price

AED 10.65M – 15.1M

Median

AED 11.6M

Sales, last 12 months

Plot (median)

6,492 sq ft

Built-up (median)

4,004 sq ft

Why this range: 20 recorded sales in this segment in the last 12 months, listed under Comparables. Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot. Ready and off-plan deals are kept apart.

Rent: AED 355k – 558k a year (82 registered leases, last 12 months)

12-month outlook

Central case +4.5% on today's median. Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band; one time in ten it will land above, one in ten below. Method — trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.

Comparables (8)

Date	Type	Plot	Built-up	Price
30 Sep 2026	Ready	5,945 sq ft	4,075 sq ft	AED 11,400,000
31 Aug 2026	Ready	7,266 sq ft	4,763 sq ft	AED 17,500,000
7 Jul 2026	Ready	5,945 sq ft	4,075 sq ft	AED 10,750,000
18 Jun 2026	Ready	6,191 sq ft	3,575 sq ft	AED 9,000,000
17 Apr 2026	Ready	6,498 sq ft	4,004 sq ft	AED 11,350,000
13 Apr 2026	Ready	6,072 sq ft	3,575 sq ft	AED 17,300,000
16 Mar 2026	Ready	10,581 sq ft	3,535 sq ft	AED 9,500,000
18 Feb 2026	Ready	8,087 sq ft	3,961 sq ft	AED 13,000,000

Segment

5BR villa · BUA ≈3,940 sqft

Typical price

AED 12.95M – 16M

Median

AED 13.1M

Sales, last 12 months

Plot (median)

6,391 sq ft

Built-up (median)

3,942 sq ft

Why this range: 21 recorded sales in this segment in the last 12 months, listed under Comparables. Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot. Ready and off-plan deals are kept apart.

Rent: AED 400k – 659k a year (91 registered leases, last 12 months)

12-month outlook

Central case +4.6% on today's median. Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band; one time in ten it will land above, one in ten below. Method — trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.

Comparables (8)

Date	Type	Plot	Built-up	Price
13 Oct 2026	Ready	6,854 sq ft	3,820 sq ft	AED 11,750,000
12 Oct 2026	Ready	5,783 sq ft	4,256 sq ft	AED 12,950,000
7 Jul 2026	Ready	9,089 sq ft	3,914 sq ft	AED 13,000,000
25 Jun 2026	Ready	11,011 sq ft	3,820 sq ft	AED 18,500,000
18 Jun 2026	Ready	7,719 sq ft	4,918 sq ft	AED 13,000,000
11 Jun 2026	Ready	7,913 sq ft	4,125 sq ft	AED 18,000,000
15 May 2026	Ready	7,348 sq ft	3,942 sq ft	AED 16,750,000
14 May 2026	Ready	5,936 sq ft	4,256 sq ft	AED 14,800,000

Segment

6BR villa · BUA ≈4,920 sqft

No price range published. Only 3 recorded sales in the last 12 months — too few to describe a typical price.

Rent: AED 450k – 792k a year (11 registered leases, last 12 months)

12-month outlook

We abstain. muestra chica: 10 ventas listas en 24 meses (mínimo 12)

Comparables (8)

Date	Type	Plot	Built-up	Price
14 May 2026	Ready	9,174 sq ft	4,918 sq ft	AED 18,000,000
6 Mar 2026	Ready	9,174 sq ft	4,918 sq ft	AED 15,320,000
23 Jan 2026	Ready	11,494 sq ft	4,918 sq ft	AED 19,700,000
21 May 2025	Ready	8,745 sq ft	4,918 sq ft	AED 22,000,000
16 May 2025	Ready	8,078 sq ft	4,918 sq ft	AED 14,000,000
29 Apr 2025	Ready	6,238 sq ft	4,918 sq ft	AED 11,950,000
31 Mar 2025	Ready	13,948 sq ft	4,918 sq ft	AED 15,300,000
10 Feb 2025	Ready	9,141 sq ft	4,918 sq ft	AED 10,000,000

Track record

How well have our forecasts done?

Our model, average error

18.2%

Simple median, average error

36.4%

Past predictions checked

Outcomes inside the 80% band

73%

On 78 past 12-month predictions, made only with data available at the time, our model's average error was 50% lower than simply carrying forward the median price.

An honest 80% band should contain about 80% of outcomes; ours contained 73%.

How we test: method.

Guides from brokers who know The Meadows

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