Jumeirah Park: prices, rents and 12-month outlook

Data as of 13 Oct 2026. Sources: DLD — Real Estate Transactions (data.dubai open data) (retrieved 15 Oct 2026); DLD — Rent Contracts / Ejari (data.dubai open data) (retrieved 15 Oct 2026); DLD — Building and Property Project Records (data.dubai open data) (retrieved 15 Oct 2026). This is not a formal valuation. How we calculate.

At a glance

Home type	Sales (12m)	Median	Outlook
3BR villa (compact) · BUA ≈3,630 sqft	32	AED 8.03M	See range
3BR villa (large) · BUA ≈4,030 sqft	26	AED 9.18M	See range
Royal Park 4BR townhouse · BUA ≈2,460 sqft	3	—	Abstain
4BR villa · BUA ≈5,070 sqft	38	AED 9.45M	See range
5BR villa · BUA ≈5,440 sqft	16	AED 12.5M	See range
Sunrise Living 5BR (new build) · BUA ≈4,360 sqft	1	—	Abstain

By home type

Segment

3BR villa (compact) · BUA ≈3,630 sqft

Typical price

AED 7.4M – 9.22M

Median

AED 8.03M

Sales, last 12 months

Plot (median)

7,173 sq ft

Built-up (median)

3,627 sq ft

Why this range: 32 recorded sales in this segment in the last 12 months, listed under Comparables. Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot. Ready and off-plan deals are kept apart.

Rent: AED 275k – 350k a year (107 registered leases, last 12 months)

12-month outlook

Central case +4.7% on today's median. Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band; one time in ten it will land above, one in ten below. Method — trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.

Comparables (8)

Date	Type	Plot	Built-up	Price
24 Sep 2026	Ready	7,319 sq ft	3,627 sq ft	AED 7,500,000
23 Sep 2026	Ready	5,490 sq ft	3,627 sq ft	AED 9,600,000
9 Sep 2026	Ready	7,173 sq ft	3,627 sq ft	AED 7,800,000
4 Aug 2026	Ready	4,939 sq ft	3,627 sq ft	AED 4,800,000
27 Jul 2026	Ready	5,678 sq ft	3,627 sq ft	AED 7,850,000
20 Jul 2026	Ready	5,490 sq ft	3,627 sq ft	AED 8,000,000
22 Jun 2026	Ready	7,319 sq ft	3,627 sq ft	AED 7,400,000
18 Jun 2026	Ready	6,647 sq ft	3,627 sq ft	AED 8,900,000

Segment

3BR villa (large) · BUA ≈4,030 sqft

Typical price

AED 7.76M – 11.69M

Median

AED 9.18M

Sales, last 12 months

Plot (median)

6,578 sq ft

Built-up (median)

4,026 sq ft

Why this range: 26 recorded sales in this segment in the last 12 months, listed under Comparables. Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot. Ready and off-plan deals are kept apart.

Rent: AED 301k – 360k a year (62 registered leases, last 12 months)

12-month outlook

Central case +2.3% on today's median. Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band; one time in ten it will land above, one in ten below. Method — trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.

Comparables (8)

Date	Type	Plot	Built-up	Price
21 Sep 2026	Ready	5,677 sq ft	4,026 sq ft	AED 8,700,000
21 Sep 2026	Ready	5,598 sq ft	4,026 sq ft	AED 7,500,000
18 Aug 2026	Ready	5,735 sq ft	4,026 sq ft	AED 7,975,000
17 Aug 2026	Ready	6,100 sq ft	4,026 sq ft	AED 11,500,000
14 Jul 2026	Ready	7,365 sq ft	4,026 sq ft	AED 8,500,000
25 Jun 2026	Ready	5,698 sq ft	4,026 sq ft	AED 7,600,000
23 Jun 2026	Ready	6,102 sq ft	4,026 sq ft	AED 7,700,000
22 Jun 2026	Ready	6,354 sq ft	4,026 sq ft	AED 11,750,000

Segment

Royal Park 4BR townhouse · BUA ≈2,460 sqft

No price range published. Only 3 recorded sales in the last 12 months — too few to describe a typical price.

Rent: AED 269k – 395k a year (6 registered leases, last 12 months)

12-month outlook

We abstain. muestra chica: 5 ventas listas en 24 meses (mínimo 12)

Comparables (5)

Date	Type	Plot	Built-up	Price
24 Aug 2026	Ready	2,020 sq ft	2,461 sq ft	AED 5,500,000
2 Apr 2026	Ready	2,020 sq ft	2,461 sq ft	AED 5,600,000
13 Mar 2026	Ready	3,598 sq ft	2,515 sq ft	AED 6,200,000
19 Sep 2025	Ready	2,028 sq ft	2,460 sq ft	AED 5,900,000
16 Jul 2025	Ready	3,719 sq ft	2,511 sq ft	AED 5,880,000

Segment

4BR villa · BUA ≈5,070 sqft

Typical price

AED 8.31M – 11.2M

Median

AED 9.45M

Sales, last 12 months

Plot (median)

7,965 sq ft

Built-up (median)

5,070 sq ft

Why this range: 38 recorded sales in this segment in the last 12 months, listed under Comparables. Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot. Ready and off-plan deals are kept apart.

Rent: AED 315k – 430k a year (168 registered leases, last 12 months)

12-month outlook

Central case +2.8% on today's median. Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band; one time in ten it will land above, one in ten below. Method — trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.

Comparables (8)

Date	Type	Plot	Built-up	Price
8 Oct 2026	Ready	8,496 sq ft	5,070 sq ft	AED 11,100,000
31 Aug 2026	Ready	6,445 sq ft	4,893 sq ft	AED 8,350,000
24 Aug 2026	Ready	5,634 sq ft	4,893 sq ft	AED 7,500,000
5 Aug 2026	Ready	8,675 sq ft	5,070 sq ft	AED 9,700,000
24 Jul 2026	Ready	7,899 sq ft	5,070 sq ft	AED 10,500,000
30 Jun 2026	Ready	7,965 sq ft	5,070 sq ft	AED 10,500,000
22 May 2026	Ready	5,632 sq ft	4,893 sq ft	AED 8,550,000
12 May 2026	Ready	6,129 sq ft	4,893 sq ft	AED 8,700,000

Segment

5BR villa · BUA ≈5,440 sqft

Typical price

AED 12.18M – 13.56M

Median

AED 12.5M

Sales, last 12 months

Plot (median)

8,619 sq ft

Built-up (median)

5,436 sq ft

Why this range: 16 recorded sales in this segment in the last 12 months, listed under Comparables. Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot. Ready and off-plan deals are kept apart.

Rent: AED 421k – 610k a year (66 registered leases, last 12 months)

12-month outlook

Central case +3.5% on today's median. Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band; one time in ten it will land above, one in ten below. Method — trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.

Comparables (8: 7 ready, 1 off-plan)

Date	Type	Plot	Built-up	Price
5 Oct 2026	Ready	9,903 sq ft	5,436 sq ft	AED 13,500,000
8 Sep 2026	Off-plan	8,613 sq ft	5,436 sq ft	AED 4,767,000
17 Aug 2026	Ready	8,613 sq ft	5,436 sq ft	AED 19,200,000
12 Aug 2026	Ready	8,891 sq ft	5,436 sq ft	AED 14,400,000
15 Jul 2026	Ready	8,611 sq ft	5,436 sq ft	AED 11,600,000
22 May 2026	Ready	9,642 sq ft	5,436 sq ft	AED 13,750,000
26 Feb 2026	Ready	10,035 sq ft	5,436 sq ft	AED 12,241,000
24 Feb 2026	Ready	8,744 sq ft	5,436 sq ft	AED 10,500,000

Segment

Sunrise Living 5BR (new build) · BUA ≈4,360 sqft

No price range published. Only 1 recorded sale in the last 12 months — too few to describe a typical price.

12-month outlook

We abstain. muestra chica: 1 ventas listas en 24 meses (mínimo 12)

Comparables (8: 1 ready, 7 off-plan)

Date	Type	Plot	Built-up	Price
12 Jun 2026	Ready	5,490 sq ft	4,357 sq ft	AED 10,500,000
12 Aug 2025	Off-plan	7,430 sq ft	4,386 sq ft	AED 13,500,000
17 Jun 2025	Off-plan	5,579 sq ft	4,357 sq ft	AED 12,350,000
14 Apr 2025	Off-plan	6,039 sq ft	4,357 sq ft	AED 10,300,000
26 Dec 2024	Off-plan	7,069 sq ft	4,386 sq ft	AED 11,550,000
28 Nov 2024	Off-plan	6,039 sq ft	4,357 sq ft	AED 9,210,000
27 Nov 2024	Off-plan	6,039 sq ft	4,357 sq ft	AED 9,030,000
13 Nov 2024	Off-plan	7,254 sq ft	4,357 sq ft	AED 11,300,000

Track record

How well have our forecasts done?

Our model, average error

19.9%

Simple median, average error

31.6%

Past predictions checked

Outcomes inside the 80% band

72%

On 90 past 12-month predictions, made only with data available at the time, our model's average error was 37% lower than simply carrying forward the median price.

An honest 80% band should contain about 80% of outcomes; ours contained 72%.

How we test: method.

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