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Last 12 months. Typical = the middle half of registered deals. Outlook and comparables are under each home type.
By home type
3BR villa or townhouse · BUA ≈2,220 sqft
Typical price
AED 3.48M – 5.35M
Median
AED 3.75M
Ready sales, 12 months
23
Plot (median)
1,951 sq ft
Built-up (median)
2,216 sq ft
AED 3.48Mmedian AED 3.75MAED 5.35M
Why this range: the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of 23 registered ready sales in the last 12 months.
Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot.
Rent: AED 160k – 250k a year, median AED 187k (149 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
12-month outlook
p10 AED 3.06Mp50 AED 3.75Mp90 AED 5.21M
Central case 0.0% on today's median.
Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band. Method: simple median of the last 12 months (the trend model did not beat it in the backtest); p10/p90 from backtest errors.
Recent registered sales (8)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
29 Sep 2026 Ready
1,507
2,060
2,950,000
21 Aug 2026 Ready
1,951
2,216
4,000,000
12 Aug 2026 Ready
4,359
3,134
6,250,000
27 Jul 2026 Ready
1,884
2,036
3,275,000
1 Jul 2026 Ready
4,471
3,134
4,999,999
25 Jun 2026 Ready
1,946
2,216
3,625,000
17 Jun 2026 Ready
1,948
2,216
3,700,000
2 Jun 2026 Ready
4,359
3,134
4,500,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
4BR villa or townhouse · BUA ≈3,340 sqft
Typical price
AED 4.5M – 7.25M
Median
AED 6.65M
Ready sales, 12 months
33
Plot (median)
4,650 sq ft
Built-up (median)
3,339 sq ft
AED 4.5Mmedian AED 6.65MAED 7.25M
Why this range: the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of 33 registered ready sales in the last 12 months.
Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot.
Rent: AED 241k – 345k a year, median AED 300k (170 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
12-month outlook
p10 AED 5.43Mp50 AED 6.65Mp90 AED 9.24M
Central case 0.0% on today's median.
Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band. Method: simple median of the last 12 months (the trend model did not beat it in the backtest); p10/p90 from backtest errors.
Recent registered sales (8)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
5 Oct 2026 Ready
6,544
4,401
9,150,000
27 Aug 2026 Ready
5,117
3,645
7,150,000
21 Aug 2026 Ready
3,581
2,600
4,999,999
18 Aug 2026 Ready
3,507
2,209
4,500,000
18 Aug 2026 Ready
3,579
2,600
4,875,000
3 Aug 2026 Ready
5,474
3,370
7,250,000
30 Jul 2026 Ready
4,386
2,209
4,410,000
30 Jul 2026 Ready
7,152
3,370
6,400,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
5BR villa or townhouse
No price range. Only 3 registered ready sales in the last 12 months; we need at least 6.
Rent: AED 330k – 430k a year, median AED 350k (49 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
Recent registered sales (8)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
19 Jun 2026 Ready
7,110
3,586
7,500,000
11 Mar 2026 Ready
9,037
5,587
16,500,000
25 Feb 2026 Ready
5,473
3,707
7,700,000
21 Jul 2025 Ready
11,519
5,475
12,000,000
14 Jul 2025 Ready
9,718
5,370
11,200,000
30 May 2025 Ready
5,521
3,707
7,050,000
27 May 2025 Ready
7,578
5,370
15,000,000
12 May 2025 Ready
7,578
5,476
10,250,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
6BR villa or townhouse
No price range. Only 2 registered ready sales in the last 12 months; we need at least 6.
Rent: AED 450k – 650k a year, median AED 550k (9 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
Recent registered sales (6: 5 ready, 1 off-plan)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
26 Feb 2026 Ready
8,556
5,980
11,200,000
9 Feb 2026 Ready
12,027
5,980
13,800,000
21 Jul 2025 Ready
8,200
5,848
12,200,000
4 Jun 2025 Ready
8,058
5,994
11,500,000
14 Mar 2025 Off-plan
14,781
5,980
12,000,000
15 Jan 2025 Ready
11,787
5,980
10,500,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
Market trend
Quarterly index of ready-sale prices and new rents, adjusted for the mix of home types and sizes sold each quarter (2025Q1 = 100).
Ready-sale prices: 102.7 in 2026Q3New rents (Ejari): 83.9 in 2026Q3Index figures
Quarter
Sale index
Rent index
2026Q3
102.7(n 14)
83.9(n 153)
2026Q2
106.4(n 12)
88.1(n 73)
2026Q1
113.2(n 17)
100.4(n 69)
2025Q4
109.8(n 21)
93.6(n 82)
2025Q3
110.5(n 27)
89.9(n 160)
2025Q2
109.6(n 42)
92.2(n 80)
2025Q1
100(n 21)
100(n 61)
2024Q4
98.9(n 28)
88.5(n 74)
2024Q3
91.5(n 25)
88.6(n 163)
2024Q2
91.1(n 33)
82.6(n 72)
2024Q1
84.8(n 20)
88.7(n 81)
2023Q4
80(n 29)
90.1(n 77)
2023Q3
78.9(n 36)
77.9(n 163)
2023Q2
75.2(n 31)
85.2(n 90)
2023Q1
71.3(n 20)
83.4(n 79)
2022Q4
69.3(n 20)
75.3(n 91)
2022Q3
69.7(n 31)
61.2(n 284)
2022Q2
65.8(n 37)
55.6(n 160)
2022Q1
64.3(n 20)
65.9(n 74)
2021Q4
63.1(n 26)
68.3(n 57)
Mix-adjusted price change: -21.3% a year over the last 12 months, +2.8% a year over 24 months. Ready sales in the last 6 months: 26, against 35 in the 6 months before.
Track record
Track record
How well have our forecasts done?
Our model, average error
15.2%
Simple median, average error
20.3%
Past predictions checked
51
Outcomes inside the 80% band
92%
On 51 past 12-month predictions, made only with data available at the time, our model's average error was 25% lower than simply carrying forward the median price. Even so, under our conservative rule the outlook on this page uses the simple median.
An honest 80% band should contain about 80% of outcomes; ours contained 92%.
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