Brief Battle is free during the pilot: verified brokers who cover Arabian Ranches - 1 send their best units for 72 hours and we rank them against registered deals. Few brokers have joined so far, so offers may be few. Brokers never see your contact details unless you choose an offer.
Last 12 months. Typical = the middle half of registered deals. Outlook and comparables are under each home type.
By home type
2BR villa or townhouse · BUA ≈2,160 sqft
Typical price
AED 3.4M – 4.86M
Median
AED 3.9M
Ready sales, 12 months
44
Plot (median)
2,573 sq ft
Built-up (median)
2,156 sq ft
AED 3.4Mmedian AED 3.9MAED 4.86M
Why this range: the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of 44 registered ready sales in the last 12 months.
Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot.
Rent: AED 148k – 190k a year, median AED 170k (107 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
12-month outlook
p10 AED 2.98Mp50 AED 3.71Mp90 AED 4.86M
Central case -4.7% on today's median.
Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band. Method: trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.
Recent registered sales (8)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
8 Oct 2026 Ready
3,176
2,439
3,900,000
5 Oct 2026 Ready
2,941
1,749
4,900,000
25 Sep 2026 Ready
2,611
1,829
3,600,000
11 Sep 2026 Ready
2,764
2,439
4,995,000
7 Sep 2026 Ready
5,574
2,439
4,995,000
3 Sep 2026 Ready
1,238
—
2,000,000
3 Sep 2026 Ready
3,784
2,437
4,999,000
2 Sep 2026 Ready
3,898
2,437
5,525,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
3BR villa or townhouse · BUA ≈3,060 sqft
Typical price
AED 4.95M – 7.9M
Median
AED 6.05M
Ready sales, 12 months
151
Plot (median)
4,319 sq ft
Built-up (median)
3,062 sq ft
AED 4.95Mmedian AED 6.05MAED 7.9M
Why this range: the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of 151 registered ready sales in the last 12 months.
Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot.
Rent: AED 205k – 319k a year, median AED 258k (290 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
12-month outlook
p10 AED 4.8Mp50 AED 5.99Mp90 AED 7.82M
Central case -1.1% on today's median.
Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band. Method: trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.
Recent registered sales (8)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
12 Oct 2026 Ready
2,716
—
4,999,950
12 Oct 2026 Ready
4,434
2,737
4,975,000
12 Oct 2026 Ready
2,765
2,459
6,200,000
7 Oct 2026 Ready
3,497
2,272
4,999,999
7 Oct 2026 Ready
2,736
2,471
4,300,000
2 Oct 2026 Ready
4,084
2,850
4,900,000
29 Sep 2026 Ready
7,750
3,624
7,900,000
29 Sep 2026 Ready
2,788
2,519
4,500,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
4BR villa or townhouse · BUA ≈4,230 sqft
Typical price
AED 9.72M – 11.7M
Median
AED 10.57M
Ready sales, 12 months
12
Plot (median)
8,193 sq ft
Built-up (median)
4,229 sq ft
AED 9.72Mmedian AED 10.57MAED 11.7M
Why this range: the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of 12 registered ready sales in the last 12 months.
Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot.
Rent: AED 350k – 531k a year, median AED 420k (69 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
12-month outlook
p10 AED 8.4Mp50 AED 10.46Mp90 AED 13.67M
Central case -1.1% on today's median.
Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band. Method: trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.
Recent registered sales (8)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
12 Aug 2026 Ready
7,504
3,727
9,350,000
21 Jul 2026 Ready
9,387
3,641
10,500,000
13 Jul 2026 Ready
12,994
7,457
18,250,000
13 Jul 2026 Ready
8,338
4,248
11,500,000
28 Apr 2026 Ready
8,103
3,541
10,400,000
30 Mar 2026 Ready
10,057
6,013
17,350,000
25 Mar 2026 Ready
6,586
4,669
11,600,000
23 Feb 2026 Ready
5,386
3,422
8,650,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
5BR villa or townhouse · BUA ≈4,890 sqft
Typical price
AED 10.6M – 14M
Median
AED 11.22M
Ready sales, 12 months
38
Plot (median)
8,748 sq ft
Built-up (median)
4,894 sq ft
AED 10.6Mmedian AED 11.22MAED 14M
Why this range: the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of 38 registered ready sales in the last 12 months.
1 off-plan sale was counted but not priced. Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot.
Rent: AED 400k – 631k a year, median AED 498k (96 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
12-month outlook
p10 AED 9.45Mp50 AED 11.76Mp90 AED 15.37M
Central case +4.7% on today's median.
Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band. Method: trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.
Recent registered sales (8)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
13 Oct 2026 Ready
10,861
4,652
18,250,000
29 Sep 2026 Ready
12,421
4,596
12,850,000
29 Sep 2026 Ready
8,102
4,534
11,200,000
17 Sep 2026 Ready
11,034
4,513
14,600,000
17 Sep 2026 Ready
9,684
4,601
10,000,000
17 Aug 2026 Ready
5,644
3,698
8,950,000
14 Aug 2026 Ready
9,090
5,129
11,100,000
5 Aug 2026 Ready
6,482
4,799
11,000,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
6BR villa or townhouse · BUA ≈5,260 sqft
Typical price
AED 13M – 22.88M
Median
AED 15.88M
Ready sales, 12 months
6
Plot (median)
9,015 sq ft
Built-up (median)
5,259 sq ft
AED 13Mmedian AED 15.88MAED 22.88M
Why this range: the middle half (25th to 75th percentile) of 6 registered ready sales in the last 12 months.
2 off-plan sales were counted but not priced. Plot, built-up area and condition move villa prices more than size alone, so we show them instead of one price per square foot.
Rent: AED 435k – 825k a year, median AED 650k (21 new Ejari contracts started in the last 12 months)
12-month outlook
p10 AED 13.8Mp50 AED 17.18Mp90 AED 22.45M
Central case +8.2% on today's median.
Eight times out of ten we expect the outcome inside the band. Method: trend v0: segment level from a robust 12-month log-price regression with a community slope, projected with damping φ=0.5 (both chosen on 2011–2019 origins only); p10/p90 from realised backtest errors.
Recent registered sales (8: 6 ready, 2 off-plan)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
21 Sep 2026 Ready
5,828
4,676
11,500,000
25 Mar 2026 Off-plan
6,227
4,676
9,302,292
11 Mar 2026 Ready
11,069
5,276
18,000,000
21 Jan 2026 Ready
12,072
6,940
40,000,000
7 Jan 2026 Ready
14,844
5,259
24,500,000
6 Jan 2026 Ready
8,433
5,276
12,750,000
5 Dec 2025 Ready
12,342
5,259
13,750,000
27 Nov 2025 Off-plan
7,003
4,676
10,600,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
7+BR villa or townhouse
No price range. No registered ready sales in the last 12 months; we need at least 6.
Rent: Only 1 new Ejari contract in the last 12 months; we need at least 6.
Recent registered sales (1)
Date
Plot, sq ft
Built-up, sq ft
Price, AED
4 Jul 2025 Ready
14,770
6,663
17,100,000
From the DLD open data, without unit or plot numbers.
Market trend
Quarterly index of ready-sale prices and new rents, adjusted for the mix of home types and sizes sold each quarter (2025Q1 = 100).
Ready-sale prices: 105 in 2026Q3New rents (Ejari): 101.5 in 2026Q3Index figures
Quarter
Sale index
Rent index
2026Q3
105(n 61)
101.5(n 207)
2026Q2
108.7(n 35)
100.6(n 132)
2026Q1
110.7(n 71)
105.9(n 123)
2025Q4
107(n 83)
101.2(n 131)
2025Q3
110.1(n 74)
104.7(n 175)
2025Q2
105.5(n 72)
105.2(n 134)
2025Q1
100(n 73)
100(n 106)
2024Q4
96(n 75)
96.6(n 133)
2024Q3
86.6(n 92)
95.7(n 190)
2024Q2
83.7(n 108)
95.6(n 132)
2024Q1
81.3(n 68)
91.9(n 131)
2023Q4
78.5(n 81)
89.2(n 133)
2023Q3
72.6(n 85)
88.8(n 209)
2023Q2
67.7(n 86)
88.6(n 116)
2023Q1
63.6(n 73)
77.7(n 119)
2022Q4
64.7(n 71)
77.9(n 147)
2022Q3
58.8(n 95)
72.1(n 237)
2022Q2
60.4(n 88)
68.7(n 151)
2022Q1
57.2(n 81)
66.7(n 117)
2021Q4
56.8(n 64)
62.5(n 155)
Mix-adjusted price change: -4.7% a year over the last 12 months, +9.7% a year over 24 months. Ready sales in the last 6 months: 97, against 154 in the 6 months before.
Track record
Track record
How well have our forecasts done?
Our model, average error
15.7%
Simple median, average error
33.3%
Past predictions checked
103
Outcomes inside the 80% band
87%
On 103 past 12-month predictions, made only with data available at the time, our model's average error was 53% lower than simply carrying forward the median price.
An honest 80% band should contain about 80% of outcomes; ours contained 87%.
No broker guides for Arabian Ranches - 1 yet. Guides are written with registered brokers, signed with their BRN, and published only after they approve the final text.
Coverage: segments with a price range cover ≥ 80% of the area's ready sales in 12 months, with rent, at least one forecast, and off-plan at most 50% of sales (off-plan is not priced).