Fewer tourists, steady residents: new-lease rents fell most in Dubai's tourist areas
Published
What happened
Two sets of figures this autumn show where Dubai's slowdown is:
- Visitors are down. Dubai had 6.97 million international overnight visitors from January to August 2026, according to the Department of Economy and Tourism. In the same months of 2025 it had 12.54 million, so that is 44% fewer. Hotel occupancy was 36% in March and recovered to 66% in August, still only 89% of the level a year earlier.
- Hotels are emptier, malls are full. In its nine-month results on 5 November, Emaar said average occupancy at its UAE hotels fell to 63%, from 80% a year earlier. Occupancy across its retail and commercial leasing portfolio, which includes its malls, was about 98%.
Retailers are still renting space in the malls; it is the visitor side that weakened.
What the DLD data says
If the slowdown is mostly about tourists, it should show up most in the areas where holiday homes cluster. We compared the rent index for new Ejari contracts in 2026 Q3 with 2025 Q3, in eight tourist and waterfront areas and in thirteen mainly residential ones.
| Tourist and waterfront areas | New-lease rents vs 2025 Q3 | Ready-sale prices vs 2025 Q3 |
|---|---|---|
| City Walk | −22.8% | +0.1% |
| JBR | −16.1% | −3.6% |
| Dubai Harbour | −15.8% | −12.9% |
| Downtown Dubai | −15.0% | −4.8% |
| Business Bay | −13.6% | −0.8% |
| Dubai Marina | −13.0% | +12.4% |
| Dubai Creek Harbour | −9.9% | −4.1% |
| Palm Jumeirah | −9.0% | −1.9% |
| Mainly residential areas | New-lease rents vs 2025 Q3 | Ready-sale prices vs 2025 Q3 |
|---|---|---|
| Dubai Hills Estate | −9.5% | −0.7% |
| Jumeirah Village Circle | −8.8% | −1.0% |
| Damac Hills | −8.2% | −1.4% |
| Al Furjan | −7.4% | +0.4% |
| Jumeirah Village Triangle | −7.2% | +8.6% |
| The Springs | −5.9% | +6.9% |
| Dubai Sports City | −5.0% | +4.5% |
| Motor City | −4.2% | +6.5% |
| Discovery Gardens | −3.9% | +1.2% |
| Jumeirah Park | −3.8% | +6.6% |
| Arjan | −3.5% | +6.6% |
| Arabian Ranches | −3.1% | −4.6% |
| Town Square | −0.9% | +4.4% |
- Rents fell almost three times as much in tourist areas. The middle value is −14.3% in the tourist group and −5.0% in the residential group. Every tourist area fell at least 9%; most residential areas fell less than 8%.
- Prices held in both groups. In most areas ready-sale prices are within a few percent of a year ago, so rental yields fell most where rents fell most: in the tourist areas.
Ejari does not record holiday lets, so this data cannot show owners moving units from short stays to annual leases. That would add supply to the long-term market, and it fits what the numbers show, but it is a likely explanation, not a measured one.
What it means
- For investors eyeing a holiday home: a yield based on last year's short-stay income or on 2025 annual rents is likely too high in Downtown, Marina, JBR, Business Bay or City Walk. Use a current annual Ejari rent as the floor case.
- For brokers: in tourist areas, the argument for a price is now the long-term rent, and that rent is about 14% lower than a year ago. In residential areas such as Arjan, Town Square or Motor City, rents have held up much better.
- Watch the recovery: hotel occupancy rose from 36% in March to 66% in August. If visitors keep coming back, the tourist areas have the most to regain.
Sources
- Khaleej Times, 5 November 2026, for Emaar's hotel and mall occupancy; Khaleej Times, 13 September 2026, citing the Department of Economy and Tourism, for 2026 visitors and hotel occupancy; The National, 28 October 2025, for January to August 2025 visitors (links above).
- FairSqft analysis of Dubai Land Department open data (transactions and Ejari rent contracts) published on data.dubai, as of 26 October 2026. Method: https://fairsqft.com/method/